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Bihar exit poll: From seats to vote share, only IANS-CVoter spot on
Last Updated : 11 Nov 2020 02:51:01 PM IST
File Photo
File Photo


We got it right. Amid wayward predictions by others, one Bihar exit poll that got its maths right was the IANS-CVoter, which predicted 116 seats for the NDA as against its tally of 125 seats that it got.

According to IANS-CVoter Exit Poll, of the 116 seats predicted for the NDA in all the three phases of Bihar Assembly elections, the BJP was tipped to get 70 seats, Janata Dal-United 42, former Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi's Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM) two and Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) two.
When the results came in, it wasn't much different. The BJP won 74 seats (4 more than predicted), JD-U 43 (one more) and VIP and HAM with 4 each (2 more each).
The Grand Alliance was predicted to win 120 seats, whereas it ended up winning 110 seats. According to the exit poll, Tejashwi Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) was expected to get 85 seats, followed by Congress at 25. As per Election Commission results out early on Wednesday morning, RJD actually won 75 -- emerging as the single largest party -- and Congress 19.
Other prominent exit polls went totally wrong. The India Today-Axis My India exit poll had predicted a clean sweep by the Mahagathbandhan. It had predicted 139-161 seats for the Congress-RJD-Left alliance.
CNN News 18-Today's Chanakya went a step further to give the Mahagathbandhan a whopping 180 seats. It had predicted just 55 seats for the BJP-JDU-HAMS-VIP alliance.
Even Republic TV-Jan Ki Baat exit poll gave a clear edge to the Mahagathbandhan by giving it 118-138 seats.
According to IANS-CVoter exit poll, the NDA was tipped to get 37.7 per cent of the vote share, the opposition Grand Alliance 36.3 per cent, and Chirag Paswan's Lok Janshakti Party 8.5 per cent .
The reality was not very different. The BJP and JD-U together got 34.9 per cent vote share, taking it very close to the prediction figures. The Congress and RJD together took 32.6 per cent of teh votes, with the marginal rise due to presence of Left parties. The LJP share was 5.66 per cent .
Nitish Kumar's JD-U was predicted to get 15.1 per cent votes (actual 15.4 per cent). BJP was predicted to get 20.4 per cent(19.5 per cent). The IANS-CVoter exit poll said that the RJD will get 22.9 per cent votes (actual 23.1 per cent).
The exit poll also predicted a close fight between the two main alliances which turned out to be the case as well.

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